The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for August and September, raising concerns about agricultural output, , and overall , which could impact India's economic growth.
Below-normal
Aug-Sep Rainfall Forecast
📊 One chart explains it
Monsoon Performance (June-Sept % of LPA)
Takeaway: The forecast for August-September indicates a sustained period of below-normal rainfall, exacerbating the impact of the weak start to the monsoon season.
⏳ Time Machine
How today’s news fits into the bigger picture
April 2026
Initial Monsoon Forecast Positive
IMD issued its initial forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, predicting 'normal' rainfall (96-104% of Long Period Average), providing an optimistic outlook for the agricultural season.
June 2026
Monsoon Starts Weakly
The start of the monsoon season in June was characterized by deficient rainfall across many regions, raising initial concerns about agricultural prospects and delaying sowing activities for some crops.
July 2026
Modest Recovery in Rainfall
July saw a modest improvement in rainfall, bringing some relief to previously dry areas. However, cumulative rainfall still remained below the long-period average in several key agricultural states.
July 2025
Above-Normal Monsoon Last Year
The 2025 monsoon season concluded with 'above-normal' rainfall, aiding agricultural production and supporting , which provided a strong base for economic growth that year.
2018
Significant Monsoon Deficit
India experienced a significant monsoon deficit year, with rainfall 9% below the long-period average, leading to drought in several states and contributing to a rise in .
Today
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for August-September, raising inflation and crop concerns.
What happens next?
Government and RBI will closely monitor crop yields and food inflation over the next two months, potentially adjusting policies.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting below-normal rainfall for the crucial August-September period, the latter half of the monsoon season. This update comes after a modest recovery in July, following a weak June. The prospect of a **monsoon deficit** raises significant concerns for India's economy, particularly impacting kharif (summer) crops, which rely heavily on these rains. This could lead to higher food inflation, reducing purchasing power in rural areas and potentially dampening overall economic growth. Policymakers will be closely watching for implications on food prices and rural demand.
💭 If you're wondering…
Kharif crops, also known as monsoon crops, are cultivated during the monsoon season (June to October) and include staples like rice, maize, jowar, bajra, pulses, and oilseeds. They are heavily dependent on rainfall.
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